Brain Drain Slows as Cross-Border Immigration Policies Shift

The gap in immigration flows between Canada and the U.S. has narrowed in the last few years, with a growing number of Americans gaining permanent residence here, according to a new Statistics Canada report.

 

Despite the historical Canadian brain drain to its superpower neighbour, the average annual number of Canadian-born citizens gaining U.S. permanent residence fell by 30 per cent, from 15,600 in the late 2000s to 10,900 in the late 2010s, while the number of American-born immigrants to Canada increased, said the report released on Wednesday.

 

The average gap dropped even more to a margin of 1,000 people during the period between 2021 and 2023, when the U.S. granted permanent residency to 11,100 Canadian-born citizens annually. That compared to an average of 10,100 American-born citizens receiving permanent status in Canada.

 

Notably, foreign-born residents of Canada were more likely than their Canadian-born peers to become U.S. permanent residents — a phenomenon that researchers suggest reflects “second-step migration,” in which foreign-born individuals first migrate to Canada before relocating south of the border.

 

“For Canada, these findings highlight retention issues for skilled immigrants,” said the report, titled “Recent trends in immigration from Canada to the United States.”

 

“In the United States, the influx of highly skilled Canadian workers continues to bolster key sectors, but the overall decline in Canadian immigration suggests tightening competition for global talent.”

Based on three sets of U.S. and Canadian data, the study examines annual permanent and temporary migration flows between the two countries since the 1990s.

 

The data also distinguishes Canadian-born Canadian citizens and foreign-born Canadian citizens, thus providing information on the characteristics of former immigrants in Canada moving to the U.S.

 

The report found that about 30 per cent of permanent residents in the U.S. from north of the border were not born in Canada. Based on the 2016 Canadian census, it estimates that the rate of emigration to the U.S. was 4.8 per 10,000 for the Canadian-born population, compared with 8.2 per 10,000 for the foreign-born population.

 

The report also investigated the characteristics of Canadians actively pursuing long-term career opportunities in the U.S. before qualifying for permanent residence there through a unique data set on applicants for U.S. permanent labour certification — a key step for those seeking employer-sponsored permanent residency (a green card).

 

Between 2015 and 2024, it found the number of Canadian citizens seeking permanent employment in the U.S. declined by 26 per cent. The decrease was more pronounced among Canadian-born citizens (-36 per cent) than among foreign-born Canadian citizens (-17 per cent).

 

While Canadian workers applying for permanent employment were generally highly educated, their average educational attainment declined during the decade. The proportion of those with a master’s or doctoral degree fell to 31 per cent from 41.

 

About 46 per cent of these Canadians were in computer and mathematical occupations, or in architecture and engineering jobs. The share in these occupations was higher among foreign-born Canadian citizens, at 52 per cent in 2024, than among their Canadian-born peers, at 36 per cent. However, the latter were more likely to be in management positions.

 

During the 10 years, their median wage offer also fell from $144,000 (in 2024 constant U.S. dollars) in 2015 to $137,000 last year.

 

 

 

 

This article was first reported by The Star