American Hospitality Operators Expect Decline in Canadian Travel Volumes Due to Import Duties
Concert promoter Dave Wedekindt figured that because Roger Daltrey’s solo tour wasn’t coming to Canada, people living in Southern Ontario might be keen to watch the frontman of the legendary rock band The Who perform at his amphitheatre on the American side of Niagara Falls.
But Mr. Wedekindt, president of the non-profit running the Artpark, said an ad blitz last week on Facebook targeting Canadians living within 48 kilometres of the Lewiston, N.Y., venue definitely failed. User after user replied to the promotion with a polite “No,” stating they aren’t keen to go to the United States.
That was before the trade war erupted last Friday with the failure of bilateral negotiations in Washington. Now, Mr. Wedekindt says, he has given up on trying to advertise any shows to his neighbours to the north for the remainder of the season, which runs from May until September.
“We’re certainly following all this news here and it’s difficult because we’ve always had such a great Canadian base and they’ve been great patrons and supporters,” he said.
American businesses that rely on Canadian tourism and who spoke to The Globe and Mail say it’s too early to see how devastating a full-on trade war will be on their bottom lines. But they are bracing for fewer visitors after already seeing a drop off last year as the bilateral relationship frayed.
The renewed conflict is also expected to halt the rebound of Canadian travel to the U.S.
Last week, Statistics Canada published data showing there was a slight increase of Canadians’ trips south of the border at the start of this summer.
In June, the latest month for which data are available, Canadian residents returned from 2.3 million trips to the U.S., marking a 5-per-cent year-over-year increase, Statscan stated.
The number of trips increased for the third month in a row after 15 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, although volumes remained well below pretension norms.
There were nearly 25-per-cent fewer trips this June than in June, 2024, before U.S. President Donald Trump took office for the second time and began referring to Canada as the “51st state.”
But other public data from Cascade Gateway, which monitors crossing volume and wait-time data for the four border crossings between B.C.’s Lower Mainland and Washington’s Whatcom County, appear to show a slight dip in crossings on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Over all, data for the months of August in 2025 and this year are down significantly from the same month in 2024, before the trade war’s opening salvos a year ago, Cascade’s data show.
Mary Lou Steward, the mayor of Blaine, Wash. – a popular cross-border shopping destination for British Columbians – said she expects that trend to continue.
“When the rhetoric and tariffs first came into effect last year, we did see a 40-per-cent decline in border crossing for shopping, tourism and visiting family,” Ms. Steward wrote in an e-mail. With the new tariffs, she said she expects “a significant drop in Canadians visiting the U.S.”
More people could swear off planning American vacations this fall as leaders, such as B.C. Premier David Eby this week, urge Canadians to avoid the U.S. as a way to increase Ottawa’s position in the trade war.
Mr. Wedekindt’s conservative estimate is that the decline in cross-border visitors cost his 52-year-old concert facility US$300,000 in the last fiscal year. Canadians accounted for up to 15 per cent of the venue’s revenue until last year, when tensions increased and Artpark saw that number cut in half and stay there, Mr. Wedekindt said.
“Older audiences are a little more dug in and don’t want to come over or won’t come over,” he said.
The venue has redirected its marketing to upstate New York to lure more people, Mr. Wedekindt said, but even before the latest round of tariffs is expected to raise the cost of everyday life for Americans, it has been difficult because “as consumers, we all feel everything has gone up in price.”
At the nearby Aquarium of Niagara, in Niagara Falls, N.Y., the number of Canadian patrons was cut in half last year and the home of rescued harbour seals, Humboldt penguins and California sea lions hit a 20-year low in visitors, according to Chad Fifer, president and chief executive of the private non-profit.
“The overall sentiment for the past year and a half has been tough, mostly because we’ve been bracing for continued decline,” he said.
For Steve Wright, the general manager of Jay Peak Resort in Vermont, the bilateral breakdown of the past week was worrisome enough that he issued his second public appeal in as many years, reminding Canadians “you’re always welcome at Jay.”
Jay Peak is less than eight kilometres from the Canadian-American border and only a few hours’ drive from Montreal. Mr. Wright said Canadians make up half of the resort’s total visitors each year.
While he said the venue hasn’t seen significant cancellations yet, some of its larger Canadian clients with bookings for major events such as conferences and larger ski packages have started to ask questions.
“You know, we’ve been through this enough with this administration so that when the narrative starts to escalate relative to the Canadians and Canadian sovereignty, we tend to start to see this, and understandably so,” he said.
“The border might feel different right now. We do not.”
This article was first reported by The Globe and Mail
