Shifting Markets: Toronto Real Estate Sees 17% Drop While Alberta Luxury Homes Experience a Surge
A new luxury real estate market is emerging, while Toronto sales see a double-digit dip.
From Jan. 1 to April 30, Edmonton posted the largest year-over-year increase in luxury sales at almost 48 per cent, whereas the GTA posted a 17 per cent decline, according to Remax Canada’s 2026 spring and summer luxury report.
“In the country’s largest and most expensive markets, uncertainty has prompted affluent buyers to take a more measured approach to major purchasing decisions,” Don Kottick, president of Remax Canada, said in the report.
“At the same time, stronger economic momentum, relative affordability and compelling lifestyle opportunities are supporting demand in many smaller and mid-sized markets across the country.”
Saskatoon saw a 27 per cent boost in sales, Ottawa had a 17.5 per cent sales increase, and Calgary posted a 13.5 per cent jump in sales.
While Toronto and Vancouver continued to account for a significant share of luxury transactions, with the vast majority of high-net worth individuals in these regions, a growing number of smaller and mid-sized markets outperformed due to strong economies, in-migration and better pricing for more space, the report said.
In Edmonton, the strongest activity occurred at the entry-level luxury segment between $1.5 million and $2.5 million, where buyers see strong value compared to other major Canadian markets, the report said.
A total of 65 luxury properties priced $1.5 million and higher were sold in Edmonton in the first four months of 2026, compared to 44 sales during the same time last year.
Alberta has attracted more buyers from out of province due to affordable real estate, said Toronto-based realtor Barry Cohen.
In Edmonton, the reports cites the luxury market as $1.5 million and up, while in Toronto the report only counts homes in the $3 million and up range.
“Edmonton luxury is $1.5 million, whereas Toronto and Vancouver are $3 million,” Cohen said. “You can move to Edmonton, have a larger home, there’s less taxation and a more comfortable life.”
Alberta is also “rich in oil and gas” with the province’s economy performing better than in Ontario and B.C.
But a different story is unfolding in the GTA, as buyer caution weighs on the market.
Cohen said that in the luxury sector, buyers typically take a “wait-and-see” approach, as there are typically higher taxes in Toronto, noting Mayor Olivia Chow increased land transfer tax for homes that cost $3 million and more, further putting buyers and sellers on the sidelines.
The proposed increase in capital gains tax, which was later rescinded by Prime Minister Mark Carney, also dampened the luxury real estate market, especially in more expensive cities like Toronto and Vancouver.
“The rich felt burned because they sold their secondary home and didn’t need to do that,” Cohen said.
The luxury market tends to attract more discretionary purchases, and buyers pull back on such purchases during periods of economic instability, Cohen said.
Luxury sales over $3 million in the GTA, including single-family homes and condos, were down almost 17 per cent in the first four months of 2026, with 300 sales compared to 361 during the same period in 2025.
Sixty-two properties in the GTA sold over $5 million, down marginally from the 63 sales reported last year.
Luxury condos in Toronto’s core fared better, with sales over $3 million on par with year-ago levels, while the number of condos sold over $5 million doubled, rising from two to four, with one sale exceeding $10 million.
Sought-after neighbourhoods continue to be Rosedale and Lawrence Park, followed by the Bridle Path, Sunnybrook, York Mills, and Forest Hill.
The report also noted that 2027 will be a “significant turning point” in luxury real estate, which Cohen said could be due to the end of the foreign buyer ban.
The ban is in place until Jan. 1, 2027, unless Carney decides to extend it, but “I don’t believe he will,” Cohen said, adding that foreign buyers will help boost the real estate market and improve investment in Canada’s economy.
This article was first reported by The Star
