Global Tensions Persist, But Markets Stage a Broad Rebound
The Canadian Vanguard Stock Market Report – Wednesday March 4, 2026 Edition.
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The Toronto Market
The Toronto Market Index
The S&P/TSX Composite Index returned to positive territory today following yesterday’s near carnage. The index advanced 157.92 points, or 0.47%, to close at 33,942.86.
Although the market was positive today, the index managed to recover only about 20% of yesterday’s decline. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to act as a spoiler for the markets.
The market opened higher, briefly dipped slightly below yesterday’s closing level, but quickly reversed course and climbed nearly 200 points within the first ninety minutes after the opening bell. The index remained well above the day’s low for most of the session and held those gains through the closing bell.
Today’s TSX Market Statistics
Market breadth on the S&P/TSX Composite Index was decisively positive today, with advancing issues significantly outnumbering declining issues. A total of 1,458 stocks advanced, compared with 695 decliners, producing an advance-to-decline ratio of 2.10 to 1—roughly two advancing stocks for every declining one. An additional 152 issues finished unchanged, indicating broadly constructive participation across the exchange.
The Toronto Stock Exchange recorded 54 new 52-week highs and 9 new 52-week lows, an improvement from 60 new highs and 45 new lows in the previous session. The sharp reduction in new lows suggests that yesterday’s market weakness was more reflective of short-term risk aversion rather than the start of a broader deterioration in underlying market conditions.
Total trading volume on the exchange reached 450,725,024 shares, representing a 28% decline from yesterday’s 626,919,933 shares. The elevated volume in the previous session was largely driven by panic selling tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while today’s activity returned closer to recent average trading levels, indicating that the market may be stabilizing following the prior session’s volatility.
For investors, the improvement in market breadth and the sharp decline in new lows suggests that underlying demand remains intact, even as geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence short-term sentiment.
Today’s Toronto Market Wrap-Up Report
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to act as a catalyst for market volatility. However, there are early indications that markets may be attempting to stabilize following yesterday’s sharp sell-off. Rising oil prices remain a likely consequence if the conflict persists, but today’s session showed signs of a return toward more typical trading conditions.
Yesterday’s trading session was particularly severe, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index falling more than 2% amid a sharp surge in trading volume as investors reacted to geopolitical uncertainty. Today, the index rebounded modestly, advancing 157.92 points (0.47%) to close at 33,942.86. Despite the gain, the market recovered only about 20% of yesterday’s decline, indicating that investor sentiment remains cautious.
Market breadth, however, was constructive. On the Toronto Stock Exchange, 1,458 stocks advanced compared with 695 decliners, producing an advance-to-decline ratio of roughly 2.1 to 1, with 152 issues unchanged. The exchange recorded 54 new 52-week highs and 9 new lows, a notable improvement from 60 new highs and 45 new lows in the previous session. The sharp reduction in new lows suggests that yesterday’s weakness may have been driven primarily by short-term risk aversion rather than a broad deterioration in underlying market conditions.
Total trading volume reached 450.7 million shares, down 28% from yesterday’s 626.9 million shares. The elevated volume in the prior session was largely driven by panic selling tied to geopolitical tensions, while today’s activity returned closer to recent daily averages.
Sector performance was broadly positive, with seven of the TSX sectors closing higher. Technology led the market by a wide margin, rising 3.55%, suggesting that the recent rotation out of technology stocks may be easing. Consumer Discretionary, up 0.68%, and Basic Materials, up 0.67%, followed but with noticeably smaller gains, highlighting the concentration of today’s strength in the technology sector.
On the downside, Utilities (-0.15%), Industrials (-0.26%), and Consumer Durables (-1.61%) were the lagging sectors at the close.
Technology stocks dominated much of the market’s attention. One of the notable performers was Shopify Inc. (TSX: SHOP), which ranked among the top performers on the TSX. Shopify shares rose 6.05% to close at $176.75, with approximately 1.9 million shares traded, slightly below the company’s 50-day average volume of about 2.0 million shares. The stock has been gradually trending higher since its earnings report on February 11, and recent price action suggests the stock may be attempting to repair its technical chart. Investors may want to monitor Shopify closely for signs of continued momentum.
Another stock in the news was CGI Inc. (TSX: GIB.A), which reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The company posted adjusted net earnings of $461.0 million, representing a 2.7% increase from the same period last year, with a margin of 11.3%, down 60 basis points year over year. On the same basis, diluted earnings per share rose 7.6% to $2.12, compared with $1.97 in the prior year’s quarter. The GIB.A stock is below the 50-day moving average chart.
Meanwhile, Celestica Inc. (TSX: CLS) gained 5.11%, rising $17.96 to close at $369.19, with 384,600 shares traded. From a technical perspective, the stock remains below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average, suggesting that some caution may be warranted for traders considering new positions. Entering positions below the 50-day average can be considered aggressive, although market conditions can often override technical expectations.
Overall, today’s session suggests that the market may be attempting to stabilize after yesterday’s sharp decline. While geopolitical developments remain the key near-term risk factor, improving market breadth and a rebound in technology stocks indicate that underlying investor demand remains present beneath the volatility.
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The US Markets
Today’s U.S. Market Indexes
U.S. equities staged a broad recovery today, with all major indexes closing higher following yesterday’s geopolitical-driven sell-off.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 238.14 points (0.49%) to close at 48,739.41. The S&P 500 gained 52.87 points (0.78%), ending the session at 6,869.50, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 290.79 points (1.29%) to finish at 22,807.48.
The Nasdaq led the market’s rebound, fully erasing the losses recorded in the previous session. The strength in technology and growth-oriented stocks helped drive the broader market recovery. The S&P 500 also posted a strong advance but remained approximately 12 points short of fully recovering yesterday’s geopolitical-driven decline.
Small-cap stocks participated in the rebound as well. The Russell 2000 Index gained 27.66 points (1.06%) to close at 2,636.28, making it the second-best performing major index of the day, closely trailing the Nasdaq.
For investors, the leadership from both technology stocks and small-cap companies suggests a renewed willingness to take on risk following yesterday’s volatility. However, with geopolitical tensions still influencing global markets, near-term sentiment is likely to remain sensitive to developments on the geopolitical front.
Today’s U.S. Market Statistics
Market breadth across U.S. exchanges improved significantly, reflecting the broader recovery in equities following yesterday’s geopolitical-driven sell-off.
On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing issues clearly outpaced declining issues. A total of 1,763 stocks advanced, compared with 989 decliners, while 89 issues closed unchanged, producing an advance-to-decline ratio of 1.78 to 1—roughly nine advancing stocks for every five declining stocks.
The exchange recorded 74 new 52-week highs and 19 new 52-week lows, a sharp improvement from the previous session when 137 new highs and 167 new lows were registered. The dramatic reduction in new lows suggests that yesterday’s market weakness was largely a reaction to geopolitical concerns rather than the beginning of a broader structural decline.
Total trading volume on the NYSE reached 5.39 billion shares, representing a 17% decline from the 6.52 billion shares traded in the previous session. The lighter volume indicates that the elevated trading activity yesterday was likely driven by short-term panic selling.
Market breadth was even stronger on the NASDAQ Stock Market, where advancing stocks significantly outnumbered decliners. The exchange recorded 3,366 advancing stocks and 1,471 declining stocks, with 189 issues unchanged, resulting in an advance-to-decline ratio of 2.30 to 1—approximately eleven advancing stocks for every five declining stocks.
The NASDAQ posted 95 new 52-week highs and 102 new 52-week lows, a substantial improvement from yesterday’s 62 new highs and 294 new lows, reflecting a meaningful reduction in downside pressure among growth and technology stocks.
Trading activity on the NASDAQ totaled 11.30 billion shares, 12% higher than yesterday’s 10.07 billion shares, indicating continued strong investor participation, particularly in technology and growth-oriented stocks that helped lead the market rebound.
For investors, the improvement in market breadth and the sharp contraction in new lows across both exchanges suggests that underlying market participation strengthened during today’s rebound, even as geopolitical developments remain a key driver of short-term volatility.
Today’s U.S. Market Wrap-Up Report
U.S. equities rebounded broadly today following yesterday’s geopolitical-driven sell-off, with all major indexes closing higher as investors cautiously returned to risk assets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 238.14 points (0.49%) to close at 48,739.41. The broader S&P 500 rose 52.87 points (0.78%) to finish the session at 6,869.50, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 290.79 points (1.29%), ending the day at 22,807.48.
The Nasdaq led the recovery and fully erased the previous session’s decline, reflecting renewed strength in technology and growth stocks. The S&P 500 also staged a solid rebound but finished approximately 12 points short of fully recovering yesterday’s geopolitical-driven losses.
Small-capitalization stocks also participated in the recovery. The Russell 2000 Index advanced 27.66 points (1.06%) to close at 2,636.28, making it the second-best performing major index of the day, closely trailing the Nasdaq.
Market Breadth and Trading Activity
Market participation improved noticeably across both major U.S. exchanges, reinforcing the strength of today’s rebound.
On the New York Stock Exchange, 1,763 stocks advanced compared with 989 decliners, while 89 issues closed unchanged, producing an advance-to-decline ratio of 1.78 to 1. The exchange recorded 74 new 52-week highs and 19 new lows, a significant improvement from the prior session when 167 new lows were registered. The sharp decline in new lows suggests that yesterday’s weakness was largely driven by short-term geopolitical concerns rather than a broad deterioration in market fundamentals.
Total NYSE trading volume reached 5.39 billion shares, down 17% from yesterday’s 6.52 billion shares, indicating that the surge in activity during the previous session was likely fueled by panic selling tied to geopolitical developments.
Breadth was even stronger on the NASDAQ Stock Market, where 3,366 stocks advanced versus 1,471 decliners, with 189 issues unchanged, producing an advance-to-decline ratio of 2.30 to 1. The NASDAQ also recorded 95 new 52-week highs and 102 new lows, a sharp improvement from yesterday’s 294 new lows, highlighting a meaningful reduction in downside pressure among technology and growth stocks.
Trading activity on the NASDAQ totaled 11.30 billion shares, 12% higher than the previous session, reflecting continued strong investor participation in technology and growth-oriented equities.
Sector Performance
Sector performance was led by retail stocks, which emerged as the strongest area of the market during the session. Technology and telecommunications sectors also posted solid gains, helping drive the broader market recovery.
The financial sector advanced 0.76%, contributing to the positive market tone.
On the downside, energy stocks slipped 0.21%, while consumer discretionary goods and services declined 0.50%, making them the session’s lagging sectors.
Commodities and Currency Dynamics
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, precious-metal mining stocks have yet to regain the strong investor attention they typically receive during periods of geopolitical stress. Both gold and silver mining equities remain below the prominence they held prior to the escalation of the conflict.
One factor limiting gold’s rally has been the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has risen against several major currencies since the conflict began. A stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices, keeping the metal relatively contained despite geopolitical uncertainty.
However, this dynamic could prove temporary. If the conflict persists or escalates, safe-haven demand for precious metals may increase, potentially leading to stronger performance from gold and silver mining stocks in the weeks ahead.
Investor Perspective
For investors, today’s market action suggests that risk appetite is gradually returning following yesterday’s sharp sell-off. Strong market breadth, improving participation across exchanges, and leadership from technology and small-cap stocks indicate that underlying demand for equities remains intact.
Nevertheless, geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to represent a key near-term risk factor. As a result, market sentiment is likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines, which could continue to produce short-term volatility across global markets.
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(c) This article is published by The Canadian Vanguard on March 4, 2026
