The Canadian Vanguard Stock Market Report – Weekend July 3 – 6, 2025 Edition
Tariffs rollback looms for nations with no trade deal by August 1
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The Toronto Market (as of July 4)
The TSX composite index gained a paltry 1.90 points or 0.01%, to close the session at 27,036.16. The index opened well below the previous session’s value at close, rose quickly at the open, but could not hold the gains, and in the final hour of the session declined to close at practically the previous day’s close. The TSX has been outstanding, with multiple consecutive sessions of gains, in the last three months.
The Market Breadth: Technology, up 1.54%, was the top sector, and eight of the ten major sectors gained today. Durable Consumer Goods & Services gained 1.02%; Financials gained 0.68% and Industrials gained 0.64%. Basic Materials gained 0.54%; Telecommunications Services gained 0.17%; and Utilities gained 0.05%. Healthcare, down -0.15%, and Energy, down -0.53%, were the laggards today. Gold miners’ stocks belong in the Basic Materials sector. Currently gold price is in consolidation and taking a “break” from the recent massive rapid climbs. Our expectations from the Basic Materials sector should be very moderate at best, at least in the short term.
Industry Groups: The top five industry groups in the TSX today were: Aerospace & Defence, up 8.49%; Aluminum, up 6.06%; Coal, up 4.03%; Biotechnology, up 3.45%; and Electrical Components & Equipment, up 3.39%.
Today’s Market Statistics
Today, the issues that gained (Advancers) outnumbered those that declined (Decliners). There were six Advancers for every five Decliners, or a more exact ratio of 1.20-to-1.0. In real numbers, there were 940 Advancers to 783 Decliners while 159 stocks remained Unchanged.
Today, there were 184 new 52-Week Highs and 7 new 52-Week Lows. There were 267 new 52-Week Highs and 15 new 52-Week Lows yesterday.
The total volume of shares traded at the TSX on Friday was 157,831,558, which was very much below the daily average but was more likely due to the US markets being closed for the July 4 holiday.
Market Roundup Report
President Trump talked yesterday about the likelihood of a real truce in the Gaza war within a week, so expectations of upward gold price moves should be very moderate at best at least in the short term. Gold price tends to advance when investors perceive turmoil and uncertainties in the economy. If things, on the other hand, continue to quiet down and the gold price continues the current consolidation phase, then it is time to look at other sectors such as Technology, Financials, Healthcare and Industrials for investment or trading opportunities.
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The US Markets (as of July 3; US Markets were closed on July 4)
The Dow Jones Average index gained 344.11 points or 0.77%, to close the session at 44,828.53. The S&P 500 index gained 51.93 points or 0.83% to close at 6,279.35. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 207.97 points or 1.02%, to close the session at 20,601.10. In small caps, Russell 2000 gained 12.66 points to close at 2249.04.
The Market Breadth: Nine of the ten major sectors gained today. Technology, up 1.19%, was the top performer within the sectors. Utilities was up 1.00%; Financials gained 0.90%; and Industrials gained 0.82%. Durable Consumer Goods & Services gained 0.69%; Telecommunications Services gained 0.41%; and Discretionary Consumer Good & Services gained 0.36%. Basic Materials gained a mere 0.04% and Energy, the laggard of the day, declined a mere -0.02% and was the only sector that did not gain today.
Industry Groups: The top five industry groups in the US markets today were: Tires & Rubber Products, up 2.35%; Engineering & Construction, up 1.93%; Rails & Roads – Passengers, up 1.93%; Software, up 1.90%; and Retail – Drugs, up 1.76%.
Today’s Market Statistics
At the NYSE, the issues that gained (Advancers) outnumbered the issues that declined (Decliners). There were roughly nine Advancers for every four Decliners, or an exact ratio of 2.27-to-1.0. In actual numbers, there were 2,736 Advancers to 1,202 Decliners with 292 Unchanged.
Today, there were 450 new 52-Week Highs and 33 new 52-Week Lows. There were 358 new 52-Week Highs and 41 new 52-Week Lows yesterday.
The total volume of stocks traded today at the NYSE was 3,415,058,830, or about 40%, four tenths, less than the total volume of 5,738,130,845 shares traded yesterday.
On the NASDAQ, the Advancers outnumbered the Decliners. There were roughly two Advancers for every Decliner, or an exact ratio of 2.09-to-1.0. In actual numbers, there were 3,016 Advancers to 1,440 Decliners with 283 Unchanged.
Today, there were 308 new 52-Week Highs and 35 new 52-Week Lows. There were 195 new 52-Week Highs and 68 new 52-Week Lows yesterday.
The total volume of shares traded at the NASDAQ today was 6,327,601,051, or 26% less than the total volume of 8,597,180,304 shares traded yesterday.
Market Roundup Report
Futures fell this evening. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs will boomerang back to the April 2 level on August 1 for countries that have not reached an agreement with the administration by then. Tariff uncertainties are back!
Gold price will likely resume the upward climb again if President Trump returns to arbitrary tariff imposition. The announcement of a return to April 2 tariff rates on August 1 for countries that have not concluded tariff negotiation deals with the US administration may cause Gold price to rise. Investors need to keep an eye on the market reaction to the announcement.
Gold is a commodity. People are buying gold all the time. However, the real buyers of gold, the ones who actually drive the price, are the Central Banks and the institutional investors, but they only buy gold in price-moving quantities in times of economic uncertainty.
Futures fell after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs will boomerang back to the April 2 level on August 1 for countries that have not reached an agreement with the administration by then. The announcement is sure to have affect the stock market tomorrow. Investors should keep an eye on AEM, FNV, AU and other gold miner stocks.
Oil Price: On Monday, US oil price climbed to $67 per barrel. US Oil price was at $65.90 per barrel as of the time (9:25 pm ET, Sunday) of this post update.
10 –year Treasury Yield: The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.34% on Thursday. The 10-year yield was at 4.332%, as of the time (9:25 pm ET, Sunday) of this post update.
After-hours action: Dow Futures was down -141.00 points or -0.31% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures is down -0.50%, and Nasdaq 100 futures was down -130.75 points or -0.56% as of the time (9:25 pm ET, Sunday) of this post update.
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Stocks In The News /Stocks To Watch
The Toronto Market
We are in the early days of Q3’2025. It is time for some analysis – we will examine the performance of one of our Beginner’s Watchlists during the last quarter, Q2’2025. Our readers can easily, and we encourage them to, do this themselves at the end of every quarter. This can be done with a pencil and paper or using a spreadsheet. The TSX rose substantially during the second quarter. The financial sector contributed to the TSX gains during the period. Our Beginner’s Watchlist is dominated by the big banks. This is deliberate as we do not want our beginners to risk too much of their capital while still learning. The stocks of the big banks are less volatile.
| Basic (Pencil and Paper) Analysis of the Beginner’s Watchlist for – Q2’2025
Period: April 7 to July 4, 2025 |
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| TD Bank (TSX:TD):
On April 7, TD closed at $79.35 On July 4, TD closed at $101.69 Difference = $22.34; or Gain = 28.15%
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CIBC (TSX:CM):
On April 7, CM closed at $78.29 On July 4, CM closed at $97.89 Difference = $19.60; or Gain = 25.04%
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| Bank of Montreal (TSX:MO):
On April 7, BMO closed at $125.63 On July 4, BMO closed at $153.80 Difference = $28.17; or Gain = 22.42%
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Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX:BNS):
On April 7, BNS closed at $63.48 On July 4, BNS closed at $74.92 Difference = $11.44; or Gain = 18.02%
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| Royal Bank (TSX:RY):
On April 7, RY closed at $155.54 On July 4, RY closed at $179.55 Difference = $24.01; or Gain = 15.44%
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| Dollarama (TSX:DOL):
On April 7, DOL closed at $151.00 On July 4, DOL closed at $190.96 Difference = $39.96; or Gain = 26.46%
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Nutrien Ltd. (TSX:NTR):
On April 7, NTR closed at $67.71 On July 4, NTR closed at $82.51 Difference = $14.80; or Gain = 21.86%
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| Thomson Reuters (TSX:TRI):
On April 7, TRI closed at $231.61 On July 4, TRI closed at $271.86 Difference = $40.25; or Gain = 17.38%
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Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ):
On April 7, CNQ closed at $37.84 On July 4, CNQ closed at $43.77 Difference = $5.93; or Gain = 15.67%
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TD Bank (TD) was the top stock in our watchlist, returning a 28.15% gain during the period. Dollarama Inc. (DOL) was the second returning 26.46% during the same period. Both TD and DOL stock price charts are not currently extended. However, our readers are reminded that nothing man-made goes up forever and also that the market will always do what it wishes to do. Pullbacks are normal and should be expected and always factored into our decisions before making purchases of stocks currently engaged in upward price moves.
If you miss the gains shown above, do not feel bad, as the market is not going away. New opportunities are a regular feature of the markets. It is important that opportunities are confirmed, however, before you ever take any plunge. If you read The Canadian Vanguard’s Stock Market Report regularly, you will learn some of what to watch out for, but better still, register for one or more of our related training courses. Be sure to pay attention to managing the risks. Losses are inevitable when it comes to stock market investing, regardless of whether you are a beginner or a professional. The good news is that there is no magic in stock market investing, just as there is definitely no magic in engineering. You only need to acquire the skills required.
Register to receive more detailed market analysis at The Canadian Vanguard and grow your market investment steadily.
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Regular Market Day Features
The Canadian Vanguard Beginner Investor’s Watchlist
The Blended Growth Stock Watchlist
EV Manufacturers and Resource Stocks
NOTICE TO READERS
Our readers are strongly advised to conduct their research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation. Any recommendation is not a guarantee of any particular stock’s future prices, and The Canadian Vanguard accepts no responsibility or liability for investors’ or readers’ purchases.
The Canadian Vanguard’s Stock Market Reports, https://www.thecanadianvanguard.com/category/stock-markets/ are composed by senior Financial Industry and Information Technology professionals. We deliberately neither engage nor deploy AI tools to produce these reports.
