Tax Incentives Spark Dramatic 246% Surge in Greater Toronto Area Housing Market
New single-family home sales in the GTA rebounded in July after last year’s historic lows all thanks to the recent HST rebate.
While single-family homes are performing well, condo sales continue to lag as the HST rebate program rules around construction start and completion dates limit this segment of the market, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) said in its Thursday report.
“July new home sales across the GTA continued to reap the benefits of the HST rebate program led once again by the single-family sector,” said Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group, BILD’s source for new home data.
“Builders have been responding to the uptick in demand with a steady flow of new lowrise product that is keeping the sector in balance,” Jegg added. “This balanced state serves to avoid the upward pressure typically placed on pricing in a rising market.”
Sales improve from historic lows in 2025
There were 781 single-family home sales in the GTA in July, a significant year-over-year increase of 246 per cent, and 50 per cent above the 10-year average. Single-family homes include detached, semi-detached and townhouses (excluding stacked townhouses).
Condos, which include units in low, medium, and highrise buildings and stacked townhouses, accounted for 237 units sold in the GTA in July — a 40 per cent increase from July 2025 but 80 per cent below the 10-year average.
The benchmark price for new condominium apartments in July in the GTA was $1.05 million up 2.5 per cent compared to last year. The benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1.36 million, which was down 8.5 per cent over the last 12 months.
Prices for single-family homes and condos are gross prices, meaning they do not include the HST rebate that came into effect in April and exempts buyers from the 13 per cent HST on select new homes for one year. BILD said they didn’t include the rebate to be able to compare “like-on-like” comparisons to previous years.
Dave Wilkes, president and CEO at BILD, said he’s spoken to some homebuyers who say that the rebate has improved affordability, allowing first time buyers into the market.
“One person was emotional in saying that they never thought they’d be able to afford a home, and now that they can,” he said.
“It was really inspiring to see people realizing that they could actually own a home … that they could begin to build the life that they want to build.”
The inventory level for all housing types — the time it would take to sell inventory on the market based on current demand — is 36.5 months based on average sales for the last 12 months.
A healthy market level is around nine to 12 months.
Condos can’t fully benefit from HST rebate
On March 25, the federal and provincial governments announced they were injecting $2.2 billion into Ontario’s sputtering home construction industry with a one-year break on the HST for buyers of new houses and condos.
This means buyers are exempt from the 13 per cent harmonized sales tax on all new homes worth $1 million or less, with the equivalent in savings for new homes up to $1.5 million.
Because the expanded HST rebate is active for a year (purchase agreements must be signed between April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027) and construction for primary residences must begin by Dec. 31, 2028, and be substantially completed by Dec. 31, 2031, it’s easier to find single-family home projects that fit into this timeline, the report says.
This article was first reported by The Star
