U.S. Stocks Rally on Growing U.S.–Iran Conflict De‑escalation Hopes
The Canadian Vanguard Stock Market Report – Tuesday March 31, 2026 Edition.
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The Toronto Market
The Toronto Market Index
The S&P/TSX Composite Index surged 833.10 points, or 2.61%, to close at 32,768.04. The index opened in positive territory and continued to climb steadily throughout the session, finishing near its daily high.
Today’s strong performance was largely driven by developments related to tensions between the United States and Iran. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to influence oil prices, which in turn exert significant impact on the broader market, contributing to heightened volatility.
However, geopolitical developments remain unpredictable. As a result, gains of this magnitude—such as today’s 2.61% increase—are unlikely to be consistently replicated in the near term.
Tuesday’s TSX Market Statistics
Market breadth was strongly positive, with advancing issues significantly outpacing declining ones. A total of 1,949 stocks advanced, while 299 declined, resulting in an advancer-to-decliner ratio of 6.52 to 1—approximately thirteen advancers for every two decliners. An additional 68 issues remained unchanged.
The exchange recorded 47 new 52-week highs and 39 new 52-week lows, compared with 89 new highs and 59 new lows in the previous session, indicating a moderation in breakout activity.
Total trading volume reached 597,113,957 shares, up 19% from 500,790,480 shares traded in the prior session, reflecting increased market participation.
Today’s Toronto Market Wrap-Up Report
The S&P/TSX Composite Index delivered a strong bullish performance today, driven largely by developments in the Middle East. News suggesting the possibility of a truce in the ongoing conflict boosted investor sentiment and helped lift equities broadly.
The rally was widespread, with seven of the major sectors posting notable gains. Basic Materials led the advance, rising 6.29%, followed by Technology, up 4.43%, and Healthcare, which gained 3.18%. The Financials sector, which had struggled since the beginning of the month, rebounded with a 2.42% gain. On the downside, Utilities slipped 0.14%, while Energy declined 0.45%, making them the session’s laggards.
Energy-related stocks—including refiners and LNG companies—had been trending higher since the onset of the conflict due to shipping disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. However, optimism around a potential truce prompted a pullback in these names, signaling a possible sector rotation. Methanex Corp. fell 4.72%, while Tourmaline Oil Corp. declined 3.41%. South Bow Corporation also dropped 3.0%, with 2.97 million shares traded. This movement suggests capital may be rotating into other sectors, particularly technology, though additional sessions will be needed to confirm a sustained trend.
Mining stocks delivered strong gains during the session. Franco-Nevada Corporation rose 6.00% to close at $344.45, with 449,000 shares traded. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. advanced 5.98% to $182.60 on volume of 965,450 shares, while Agnico Eagle Mines Limited gained 5.82% to finish at $282.37, with 1.46 million shares changing hands.
In the Technology sector, Celestica Inc. surged 9.5% to close at $392.42, with 664,000 shares traded. Shopify Inc. climbed 5.96% to $165.06, with 2.27 million shares traded.
Within Financials, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce stood out as the top-performing major bank, rising 3.1% to close at $131.84 on volume of 3.52 million shares.
Outlook
While today’s rally reflects improved sentiment driven by geopolitical developments, market direction in the near term will likely remain closely tied to headlines out of the Middle East. Any confirmation of a truce could further support equities and reinforce sector rotation into growth-oriented areas such as technology. Conversely, renewed escalation may reintroduce volatility and shift investor preference back toward energy and defensive sectors.
Investors should also monitor oil price movements, as they remain a key transmission channel between geopolitical events and market performance. In the short term, it may be prudent to watch for follow-through in sector rotation trends and broader market participation before drawing firm conclusions about a sustained directional shift.
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The US Markets
U.S. Market Indexes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,125.37 points, or 2.49%, to close at 46,341.51. The S&P 500 advanced 184.80 points, or 2.91%, ending the session at 6,528.52. The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, jumping 795.99 points, or 3.83%, to finish at 21,590.63. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index rose 82.37 points, or 3.41%, to close at 2,496.37.
Market performance was once again driven by developments related to the ongoing Middle East conflict. This time, optimism surrounding a potential truce fueled a broad-based rally, sending major indexes sharply higher. The gains marked the strongest percentage advances since May, approximately ten months ago.
Notably, the Russell 2000 Index moved back above its 200-day moving average following today’s rally, signaling potential improvement in small-cap sentiment. However, the other major indexes remain below their respective 200-day moving averages, indicating that broader market conditions have yet to fully recover.
The past month has been marked by significant strain on financial markets due to the conflict, and while today’s rebound is encouraging, sustained recovery will likely depend on continued geopolitical stability.
Tuesday’s U.S. Market Statistics
At the New York Stock Exchange, advancing issues outpaced declining issues by a wide margin. A total of 3,669 stocks advanced, while 967 declined, with 453 issues unchanged. This resulted in an advancer-to-decliner ratio of 3.80 to 1—approximately four advancers for every decliner.
The exchange recorded 92 new 52-week highs and 200 new 52-week lows, compared with 147 new highs and 339 new lows in the previous session, reflecting an improvement in downside pressure despite fewer breakouts.
Total trading volume on the NYSE reached 6,514,352,917 shares, representing a 17% increase from the 5,546,644,095 shares traded the day before.
At the NASDAQ, market breadth was similarly strong. Advancing stocks totaled 3,903, while 953 declined, yielding an advancer-to-decliner ratio of 4.09 to 1, with 304 issues unchanged.
The exchange posted 64 new 52-week highs and 186 new 52-week lows, compared with 57 new highs and 531 new lows in the prior session, indicating a sharp reduction in new lows.
Total NASDAQ trading volume reached 10,967,595,419 shares, up 15% from 9,526,010,145 shares in the previous session.
Tuesday’s U.S. Market Wrap-Up Report
The S&P 500 and broader U.S. equity markets delivered a strong, risk-on session, with price action driven primarily by geopolitical developments rather than macro fundamentals. Optimism surrounding comments from Donald Trump regarding potential truce discussions in the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict sparked aggressive buying across most sectors.
Market breadth was decisively positive, with nearly all sectors finishing higher. Technology led the advance, gaining 4.48%, followed by Basic Materials, up 4.06%. Energy was the sole laggard, declining 0.91%, as easing geopolitical risk reduced upward pressure on oil prices. Notably, oil’s influence on equities was muted during this session, marking a shift from recent trading patterns where energy price swings heavily dictated market direction.
From a trading perspective, today’s session represented a clear break from the recent trend of heightened volatility and persistent downside pressure. Instead, equities exhibited sustained intraday strength, with momentum building throughout the session—an encouraging sign for short-term bulls.
Interest rate dynamics also provided a modest tailwind. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined by three basis points, following a ten-basis-point drop in the prior session, supporting equity valuations, particularly in growth-oriented sectors.
Technology and communications infrastructure stocks were standout performers, particularly within the fiber optics, networking, and connectivity space. Lumentum Holdings Inc. gained 7.33%, Ciena Corporation rose 6.36%, and Coherent Corp. advanced 8.45%.
Disk drive manufacturers also staged a notable rebound, making the group one to watch in the near term. SanDisk Corporation surged 10.98%, continuing its strong multi-month performance. Western Digital Corporation climbed 7.48%, while Seagate Technology Holdings plc gained 8.09%.
Trader / Investor Takeaways
- Momentum Shift: Today’s broad-based rally may signal the early stages of a short-term trend reversal, but confirmation through follow-through sessions is critical.
- Sector Rotation: Capital appears to be rotating into growth and technology, while energy is seeing near-term pressure.
- Rates Tailwind: Falling Treasury yields are supporting equity valuations, particularly in high-growth sectors.
- Watchlist Focus: Fiber optics, networking, and storage names are showing relative strength and may offer near-term trading opportunities.
Technical Outlook (Key Levels & Setup)
For the S&P 500, today’s rally brings price closer to a critical resistance zone near the 6,550–6,600 range, which aligns with recent breakdown levels and overhead supply. A decisive break above this area could trigger further upside momentum and short covering.
Immediate support is now seen near 6,350, followed by stronger support around the 6,200 level. A pullback that holds above these zones would reinforce the case for a developing bullish reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite is showing relative strength, with resistance near the 21,800 level. A breakout above this level could confirm continued leadership from the technology sector. Key support lies near 20,800.
The Russell 2000 Index is particularly notable, having reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Sustained trading above this level would be a constructive signal for broader market participation. Resistance is seen near 2,550, with support around 2,420.
Overall, the technical picture is improving, but confirmation through follow-through buying and successful tests of support levels will be essential before declaring a sustained trend reversal.
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Technical Outlook (Key Levels)
- S&P 500
- Resistance: 6,550–6,600
- Support: 6,350 → 6,200
- Nasdaq Composite
- Resistance: 21,800
- Support: 20,800
- Russell 2000 Index
- Resistance: 2,550
- Support: 2,420 (near 200-day MA)
Actionable Trade Setups
1. Breakout Continuation (Momentum Trade)
- Instrument: S&P 500 / Nasdaq Composite
- Entry: On a confirmed breakout above 6,600 (S&P) or 21,800 (Nasdaq) with strong volume
- Target: 2–4% upside from breakout level
- Stop Loss: Just below breakout zone (e.g., 6,480 / 21,300)
- Rationale: Momentum continuation driven by short covering and renewed risk appetite
2. Pullback Buy (Buy-the-Dip Strategy)
- Instrument: S&P 500
- Entry: Near 6,350 support on controlled pullback
- Target: Retest of 6,550–6,600 resistance
- Stop Loss: Below 6,200
- Rationale: Healthy retracement within a potential trend reversal
3. Small-Cap Strength Play
- Instrument: Russell 2000 Index
- Entry: On successful retest of 2,420–2,450 (200-day MA zone)
- Target: 2,550 resistance, then higher if breakout confirms
- Stop Loss: Below 2,380
- Rationale: Reclaiming the 200-day MA often signals improving breadth and risk appetite
4. Sector Momentum Trade (Technology Leadership)
- Stocks to Watch: Lumentum Holdings Inc., Ciena Corporation, Coherent Corp.
- Entry: On intraday pullbacks or consolidation breakouts
- Target: 5–10% short-term upside (momentum continuation)
- Stop Loss: 3–5% below entry
- Rationale: Strong relative strength and sector rotation into growth
5. Watchlist Breakout (Storage Segment)
- Stocks: SanDisk Corporation, Western Digital Corporation, Seagate Technology Holdings plc
- Entry: Break above recent highs or continuation patterns
- Target: Momentum-driven extension (swing trade)
- Stop Loss: Below recent consolidation lows
- Rationale: Strong group momentum with potential institutional accumulation
Trading Note
While today’s session was decisively bullish, traders should remain disciplined. Follow-through buying and confirmation at key resistance levels will be critical. In the absence of confirmation, markets may revert to volatility driven by geopolitical headlines.
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(c) This article is published by The Canadian Vanguard on March 30, 2026
