Canada-U.S. Tariffs Cast a Shadow Over Michigan Midterms
No where in the U.S. will tariffs be more top of mind for midterm voters than in Michigan. According to a website launched by the National Taxpayers Union Foundation (NTUF), tariffs cost Michigan households more than in any other state. U.S. President Donald Trump’s taxes cost per household in the Wolverine state is more than US$5,600.
Twenty-five per cent auto tariffs imposed by Trump in 2025, have contributed to that cost in the state, which is the heart of the American automotive industry. The highly integrated supply chain with Canada is making it even more painful for people who live and work in Michigan. If there is no trade deal with Canada by January 2027, auto tariffs on Canadian-made cars, trucks and auto parts will double to 50 per cent.
“It’s two countries, one region,” said Sandy Baruah, president and CEO of the Detroit Regional Chamber speaking about the bilateral relationship between Canada and the U.S. “We also want our companies in the United States that actually build the facilities, that rehab and retool the facilities… to be able to do business in both the United States and Canada, equally well.”
Baruah told CTV News that ever since section 232 tariffs were imposed on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos, most businesses are waiting to make any kind of significant investment on either side of the border.
“Right now, they’re (companies) still a little frozen because they don’t know what the long-term trajectory is,” said Baruah. “If you’re a CEO of a publicly traded company, you’re saying, ‘well, let’s just see what we can do over the next couple of years, and let’s see where we go.’”
According to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, Michigan is the third most affected by tariffs of all American states. The recent NTUF report shows importers that bring goods into Michigan have paid more than $23 billion in tariffs in the last 22 months.
The unpopularity of those taxes has bled into the hotly contested Senate race with the Republican candidate Mike Rogers even calling for an end to the trade war with Canada. In October the former congressman released a video ad pitching a truce with the U.S.’ northern neighbour.
“Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now,” said Rogers in the video, adding that if he’s elected the state’s senator he will “bring both parties together to lower your prices.”
It’s one of the rare times both Republican and Democratic candidates are on the same side of an issue with candidate Abdul El-Sayed calling Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods “dumb” in a TV ad.
Despite the consensus on tariffs, El-Sayed is consistently polling ahead of Rogers leading up to Tuesday’s vote. With affordability being one of the central campaign issues of the midterms, the Republican record is causing issues for candidates running under the GOP banner, according to CTV News’ U.S. political analyst Eric Ham.
“That is clearly one of the drivers that we’re seeing why Republicans are having such a difficult time, because there (Michigan), it’s all about the economy,” said Ham.
According to Ham, the problem is further compounded by the so-called “Reagan Democrats.” That type of voter is traditionally registered as a democratic voter who is most commonly a blue-collar worker in the rust belt, like Michigan. They’ve earned the moniker because they’re democrats who would vote for former republican president Ronald Reagan. However, Ham isn’t sure that will happen during Tuesday’s midterms.
“What we’re seeing now in this election, even those Reagan Democrats are becoming increasingly problematic for people like Mike Rogers,” said Ham.
A number of polls show Trump’s approval rating in the state of Michigan at a record low in the 30 per cent range. A major drop from the 2024 presidential election, where Trump won the state with 49.7 per cent of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 48.3 per cent. It was a narrow victory, but enough for Trump to flip Michigan back into the Republican win column.
Keeping the state red could be a tall task, considering the current affordability crisis in Michigan and across the United States. According to the Pew Research Centre survey conducted in August, 60 per cent of Americans say that don’t currently have enough income to lead the kind of life they want.
In that same survey, nearly one-in-three respondents said, “they worry every day or nearly every day about the cost of health care and the amount of debt they have.” Twenty-seven per cent of people said they cannot pay some of their monthly bills or can only make partial payments, while more than half say they have not been able to save money for the future.
This article was first reported by CTV News
