Markets Rally as Trump Signals Possible End to Iran Conflict, Oil Prices Plunge
The Canadian Vanguard Stock Market Report – Monday March 9, 2026 Edition.
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The Toronto Market
The Toronto Market Index
The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 105.60 points, or 0.32%, to close at 33,189.32. The market began the day on a weak note but gradually strengthened, finishing well above Friday’s close.
The index opened about 300 points lower and briefly fell another 250 points before reversing course in mid-morning. From that point, it climbed steadily for most of the session, with only a slight decline during the final half hour of trading.
This marked a notable shift in market sentiment compared with the previous two sessions, which were characterized by heavy selling. However, it may be too early to conclude that the sell-off—largely driven by tensions in the Middle East—has fully subsided.
Today’s TSX Market Statistics
Market breadth on the Toronto Stock Exchange was marginally positive, with advancing issues slightly outnumbering declining issues. A total of 1,165 stocks advanced while 1,066 declined, producing an advancer-to-decliner ratio of approximately 1.09 to 1—equivalent to roughly eleven advancing stocks for every ten declining stocks. An additional 129 issues closed unchanged, indicating a relatively balanced market despite the day’s modest overall gain.
The distribution of new highs and lows reflected somewhat weaker internal momentum compared with the previous session. The exchange recorded 47 new 52-week highs and 61 new 52-week lows, reversing Friday’s pattern when 62 stocks reached new highs while 42 posted new lows. This shift suggests that, although the broader index recovered during the session, underlying leadership remained uneven and pockets of weakness persisted.
Total trading volume on the TSX reached 669,185,299 shares, representing a 15% increase from Friday’s 581,449,805 shares. The rise in activity indicates heightened investor engagement, likely driven by external macro developments.
Market performance during the session appeared largely news-driven, with investor sentiment influenced primarily by movements in global oil prices and ongoing geopolitical developments related to the conflict in the Middle East. Given the importance of energy stocks within the Canadian market, fluctuations in oil prices continue to play a significant role in shaping short-term trading dynamics on the TSX.
Today’s Toronto Market Wrap-Up Report
The S&P/TSX Composite Index staged a notable intraday reversal, closing up 105.60 points, or 0.32%, at 33,189.32 after spending most of the session in negative territory. The index opened roughly 300 points lower and briefly extended losses to more than 550 points early in the morning before reversing course in mid-morning and climbing gradually throughout the day.
Market sentiment improved significantly late in the afternoon after reports that Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could end soon. The news triggered a sharp reaction across markets: oil prices dropped quickly and equities rallied. Around 3:00 p.m., the TSX surged nearly 380 points in a near-vertical move, briefly reaching an intraday high near 33,240 before easing slightly into the close.
Despite the strong late-session recovery, the day’s trading highlighted how sensitive the market remains to geopolitical headlines. The previous two sessions had been dominated by selling pressure related to the conflict in the Middle East, and while today’s rebound reflects improved short-term sentiment, it remains uncertain whether the reversal will persist in the coming sessions. In the meantime, a cautious approach to the market may be warranted.
Sector Performance: Seven of the major sectors finished the session with gains, reflecting a broadly “risk-on” tone by the close. Technology led the advance, rising 1.83%, followed by Industrials, up 0.88%, and Basic Materials, which gained 0.87%. The Energy sector posted only a modest increase of 0.23%, reflecting the sharp late-day decline in oil prices. On the downside, Healthcare fell 0.45% while Financials declined 0.59%, making them the session’s laggards.
Market Breadth and Activity: Market breadth was marginally positive on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with 1,165 advancing issues versus 1,066 declining issues, producing an advancer-to-decliner ratio of approximately 1.09 to 1. A further 129 stocks closed unchanged.
The exchange recorded 47 new 52-week highs and 61 new 52-week lows, compared with 62 highs and 42 lows in the previous session, suggesting that underlying momentum remains mixed despite the late-day rally.
Total trading volume reached 669,185,299 shares, representing a 15% increase from Friday’s volume of 581,449,805 shares. The increase in activity reflects heightened investor engagement as traders responded to geopolitical developments and shifting oil price expectations.
Impact of the Conflict on the Airline Industry
The airline sector remains one of the industries most affected by the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. Jet fuel prices have surged in recent weeks, rising by roughly 60 cents per gallon since late February. Prices have climbed as high as $4.19 per gallon in Los Angeles and $3.92 per gallon in New York Harbor, according to OPIS, an energy data and analytics firm.
Following the escalation that began when the United States launched military action against Iran on February 28, several analysts have lowered price targets for airline stocks, including Air Canada, citing rising fuel costs and increased geopolitical uncertainty.
Other Market Developments
In policy-related news, the Canadian government indicated it is reversing an earlier decision to ban the popular social media platform TikTok. The move is viewed by some observers as part of a broader effort by Canada to rebuild economic ties with China and diversify international trade relationships beyond its heavy reliance on the United States.
Notable Stock Movers
Several companies were among the session’s notable performers, including Celestica Inc., Cameco Corporation, Energy Fuels Inc., and MDA Space Ltd..
Meanwhile, Methanex Corporation has demonstrated notable resilience, largely defying the market volatility caused by the current geopolitical conflict over the past week.
Outlook
Given the unpredictable nature of geopolitical conflicts, market conditions may remain volatile in the near term. Investors may wish to monitor both the broader market and the above-mentioned stocks for several more sessions before making new commitments. Prudent risk management and careful observation of macro developments remain advisable as the situation evolves.
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The US Markets
U.S. Market Indexes
U.S. equities staged a strong intraday recovery today as markets reacted to geopolitical developments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 239.25 points, or 0.50%, to close at 47,740.80. The S&P 500 advanced 55.97 points, or 0.83%, ending the session at 6,795.95, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 308.27 points, or 1.38%, finishing the day at 22,695.99.
Trading began under heavy pressure as investors reacted to continuing concerns about the Middle East conflict. The Nasdaq Composite was particularly volatile, falling nearly 1,000 points within the first half hour of the session. However, the market began stabilizing later in the morning and gradually moved higher as the day progressed.
A dramatic reversal occurred in the final hour of trading following reports that Donald Trump indicated the conflict in the Middle East could soon come to an end. The news triggered a sharp surge in equities, with the Nasdaq rising almost vertically, moving above Friday’s closing level and briefly extending gains by roughly 240 points before easing slightly into the close. While all major indexes followed a similar recovery pattern, the Nasdaq led the market higher and finished as the strongest performer of the session.
Small-cap stocks also participated in the rebound. The Russell 2000 Index rose 28.37 points, or 1.12%, to close at 2,553.67. Although the gain of more than one percent reflects improved risk appetite among investors, the index remains well below its typical levels following last week’s sharp, war-driven sell-off.
Overall, today’s session illustrated how strongly market sentiment is currently tied to geopolitical developments. While the late-day rally suggests investors are willing to re-enter the market on signs of easing tensions, the recent volatility indicates that markets may remain sensitive to further news regarding the Middle East conflict in the near term.
Today’s U.S. Market Statistics
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE): The Market breadth on the New York Stock Exchange was negative, with declining issues outnumbering advancing issues. Specifically, there were 1,539 decliners compared with 1,235 advancers, while 71 stocks closed unchanged. This produced a decliner-to-advancer ratio of approximately 1.24 to 1, or roughly six declining stocks for every five advancing stocks.
The exchange recorded 53 new 52-week highs and 122 new 52-week lows, indicating continued internal weakness despite the late-session rebound in the major indexes. This compares with 58 new highs and 64 new lows recorded on Friday, suggesting that downside pressure in individual stocks increased during the session.
Total trading volume on the NYSE reached 6,825,140,971 shares, representing a 16% increase from Friday’s volume of 5,860,939,279 shares. The rise in activity reflects heightened investor participation amid geopolitical developments and sharp intraday volatility.
NASDAQ: On the NASDAQ, market breadth was more positive, with advancing issues clearly outnumbering declining issues. A total of 2,825 stocks advanced while 2,023 declined, resulting in an advancer-to-decliner ratio of approximately 1.40 to 1—equivalent to about seven advancing stocks for every five declining stocks. An additional 190 issues closed unchanged.
The exchange posted 73 new 52-week highs and 283 new 52-week lows, compared with 68 new highs and 206 new lows in the previous session. The elevated number of new lows suggests that, although the technology-heavy market rallied strongly into the close, many stocks remain under pressure following last week’s broad market sell-off.
Total NASDAQ trading volume reached 10,028,395,756 shares, about 5% higher than Friday’s volume of 9,537,799,150 shares. The increase in trading activity underscores the heightened volatility and investor repositioning that characterized today’s session.
Today’s U.S. Market Wrap-Up Report
U.S. markets experienced a highly volatile, headline-driven session today as investors reacted to developments surrounding the Middle East conflict. Equity futures were sharply lower Sunday evening, and markets opened with steep declines as geopolitical risk intensified and crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel.
The major indexes initially plunged well below Friday’s closing levels before stabilizing later in the session. Sentiment shifted dramatically in the late afternoon after comments from Donald Trump suggesting that the conflict involving Iran could end soon and that oil prices may fall. The report triggered a sharp reversal across financial markets: crude oil prices dropped roughly 10%, while equities rallied strongly into the close.
The recovery lifted the major benchmarks, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite, with technology shares leading the rebound.
Sector Performance
Sector performance reflected the day’s dramatic sentiment shift. Technology emerged as the top-performing sector, rising 1.69%, followed by Healthcare, which gained 1.12%, and Basic Materials, up 0.97%. These gains indicate a late-session return to risk-oriented positioning as investors rotated back into growth and cyclical names after the oil-driven panic subsided.
On the downside, Telecommunications Services declined 1.43%, Energy slipped 0.23%, and Financials edged lower by approximately 0.02%. The modest weakness in Energy reflected the late-day collapse in crude prices following the geopolitical news, while Financials remained cautious amid broader macro uncertainty.
From a trading perspective, the session illustrates how quickly sector leadership can rotate when markets are driven by geopolitical headlines and commodity price swings.
Notable Stocks in the News
Several individual stocks saw significant moves driven by corporate developments and sector momentum. Shares of Boeing Inc. (BA) declined 2.62% to close at $225.05, with trading volume reaching 8.4 million shares.
Meanwhile, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) surged 40.85%, gaining $6.43 to close at $22.17 on heavy volume of 175 million shares. The rally followed news that Novo Nordisk agreed to distribute its weight-loss drugs through the company’s platform while dropping a patent infringement lawsuit. Novo Nordisk manufactures the obesity treatment Wegovy, a rapidly growing product in the global weight-management market.
In the technology and infrastructure space, Ciena Corporation (CIEN) rebounded sharply, rising 8.3% after suffering a steep decline following its recent earnings report. The company’s optical networking technology—critical for high-speed data transmission and data center connectivity—continues to benefit from growing demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The broader AI ecosystem also showed strength. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) climbed 4.62% to close at $345.75 with 40.6 million shares traded, while Nvidia Corp (NVDA) gained 2.72% to close at $182.65 on heavy volume of 177.2 million shares.
Investor & Trader Outlook
Today’s session underscores the extent to which global markets are currently being driven by geopolitical developments and commodity price movements. The sharp intraday reversal highlights both the risks and opportunities associated with headline-driven trading environments.
For traders, volatility may remain elevated as markets react quickly to news surrounding the Middle East conflict and energy prices. Short-term momentum may favor technology and AI-related infrastructure stocks, which continue to attract capital flows.
For investors, the longer-term structural themes—particularly artificial intelligence, data infrastructure, and digital platforms—remain intact. However, entry timing remains critical. In volatile markets, disciplined position sizing and patience may provide better opportunities as conditions stabilize.
In short, while today’s rebound suggests improving sentiment, market participants should remain alert. In the current environment, timing and risk management are as important as stock selection.
Commodities, Bonds & Overnight Markets Update
Global markets continued to react to geopolitical developments overnight, particularly comments from Donald Trump regarding the conflict involving Iran and the security of the Strait of Hormuz. The statement had immediate effects across commodities, bonds, and futures markets.
Oil: U.S. crude prices fell sharply after the warning to Iran against blocking the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil is currently down $5.69, or 6.10%, trading at $88.95 per barrel as of the time of this update.
Precious Metals: Safe-haven demand remained strong amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- Gold is up $76.00, or 1.47%, at $5,179.40 per troy ounce.
- Silver is up $4.39, or 1.49%, trading at $88.91 per ounce.
The gains in precious metals reflect ongoing investor demand for defensive assets during periods of geopolitical and market uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency: Digital assets also traded modestly higher overnight.
- Bitcoin is up $987.86, or 1.43%, currently trading at $69,970.00.
Bonds: In the fixed-income market, the benchmark U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield stands at 4.113% as of 12:30 a.m. EST Tuesday, reflecting relatively stable bond market conditions despite volatility in equities and commodities.
After-Hours / Futures Market
Equity index futures moved modestly lower overnight as traders continued to evaluate the geopolitical outlook.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures: down 102.00 points (-0.21%) vs. fair value
- S&P 500 Futures: down 14.25 points (-0.22%) at 6,786.50
- Nasdaq‑100 Futures: down 44.75 points (-0.18%) at 24,950.00
Reminder: Overnight futures activity often has limited correlation with the next regular trading session. All figures reflect market conditions at the time of capture (12:30 a.m. EST, Tuesday) only.
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(c) This article is published by The Canadian Vanguard on March 9, 2026
